For the 160 economists who participated in a recent global poll, predicting the outcome of the 2026 World Cup served as a much-needed mental break from the intensity of tracking inflation, energy shocks, and global market instability. With the tournament set to be the largest in history—featuring 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Mexico, and Canada—the stakes for these armchair pundits were higher than ever.

When the dust settled on the polling, it was France sitting at the top. Les Bleus captured 35% of the vote, narrowly edging out Spain at 31%. If the poll holds true, it would secure a third star for France and return the trophy to European hands. A win for France would also cement Didier Deschamps’ legacy; he would become the first coach since Italy’s Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cup titles, adding to his 1998 triumph as a player.

Argentina, the reigning champions and current top-ranked team, rounded out the top three alongside Portugal and England.

"After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time," noted Cathal Kennedy, a senior economist at RBC. He pointed to a squad that is hitting its collective prime, bolstered by a fresh, rested Kylian Mbappé.

Indeed, the economists overwhelmingly favored Mbappé to dominate the individual awards. He is the clear frontrunner for both the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot. However, he faces stiff competition from England captain Harry Kane, who is coming off a staggering 61-goal season. Both superstars are now eyeing Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16 World Cup goals.

**Gut Feeling vs. Data**

While economists are known for their reliance on rigorous models, only 20% of respondents used data to form their predictions. The vast majority—73%—admitted their picks were driven by "gut instinct."

"As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!" joked Shannon Bold, an economist based in Johannesburg.

Some nations, however, didn’t fare well in the poll. Brazil’s outlook is notably bleak; despite the excitement surrounding the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti as coach, nearly a third of respondents named the Seleção as the tournament’s biggest potential disappointment. Meanwhile, Norway—driven by the unstoppable Erling Haaland—was tapped by 21% of voters as the dark horse most likely to pull off a shocker. Among emerging stars, Spain’s 18-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal topped the list as the player most likely to have a breakout tournament.

**The Real-World Price Tag**

Beyond the tactical matchups, there is a grimmer side to the 2026 tournament: the cost. With millions of fans set to descend on North America, concerns over skyrocketing ticket prices, accommodation, and travel costs have led to warnings that this will be the most expensive World Cup ever for spectators.

As one respondent noted, perhaps it’s easier to predict a winner on the pitch than in the economy. "We know when the World Cup is going to end," said Ozan Can Turkmen of Şekerbank. "On the other hand, the energy supply crisis..."

For now, the economists are happy to trade their spreadsheets for the beautiful game, even if they know the outcome of a match is just as unpredictable as the global economy.